Counter Intituive COVID-19 Propagation Dynamics in Brazil

  1. Manuel Graña 1
  2. Goizalde Badiola-Zabala 1
  3. Jose Manuel Lopez-Guede 1
  1. 1 Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea
    info

    Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea

    Lejona, España

    ROR https://ror.org/000xsnr85

Liburua:
Hybrid Artificial Intelligent Systems: 16th International Conference, HAIS 2021. Bilbao, Spain. September 22–24, 2021. Proceedings
  1. Hugo Sanjurjo González (coord.)
  2. Iker Pastor López (coord.)
  3. Pablo García Bringas (coord.)
  4. Héctor Quintián (coord.)
  5. Emilio Corchado (coord.)

Argitaletxea: Springer International Publishing AG

ISBN: 978-3-030-86271-8,  978-3-030-86270-1

Argitalpen urtea: 2021

Orrialdeak: 427-435

Biltzarra: Hybrid Artificial Intelligent Systems (HAIS) (16. 2021. Bilbao)

Mota: Biltzar ekarpena

DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR

Laburpena

There are few studies concerning the propagation of COVID-19 pandemic, besides theoretical models that have produced alarming predictions. These models assume wave-like propagation dynamics on an uniform medium. However, it appears that COVID-19 follows unexpected propagation dynamics. In this paper we consider the state-wise data on COVID-19 mortality in Brazil provided by government sources. Conventional propagation models tell us that the pandemic should propagate over the neighboring states from the initial cases in Sao Paulo. We compute several measures of correlation and prediction by random forests finding that the patterns of propagation do not correlate well with the graph distances defined by the spatial neighborhood of the states. We think that this phenomenon deserves further attention in order to understand COVID-19 pandemic.

Datuen iturria: Dialnet